EURUSD
The Euro eventually broke below breakpoint at 1.3670, ending near-term consolidative phase and commencing fresh leg lower. The price spiked lower to 1.3633 so far, ticks away from 200SMA, with subsequent bounce being capped below 1.37 barrier, former consolidation floor. This is seen as initial signal of an end of two-month congestion and fresh bear-phase that also confirms double-top formation which could trigger more significant downside, as the price action establishes below 1.37 handle. Break below 1.3626, 200SMA, to confirm bearish resumption towards psychological 1.36 support, also Fibonacci 76.4% of larger rally from 1.3475 to 1.3992, lowest and the highest price seen in 2014 so far, with 1.3561, Feb lower top, seen in extension. Correction top at 1.3687, offers initial resistance, reinforced by hourly 55SMA, and should, along with 1.37 hurdle, ideally cap the upside attempts. Only break above previous range tops at 1.3730 zone would sideline immediate bears for fresh rally towards strong 1.3773 barrier, 12/13 / 05 lower tops / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3992/1.3633 descend
Res: 1.3725; 1.3735; 1.3779; 1.3800
Sup: 1.3647; 1.3633; 1.3600; 1.3561
GBPUSD
Cable maintains overall positive tone, as rally from 1.6730, correction low, probed above 1.69 barrier, with 1.6919, the highest seen so far. Near-term congestion fresh high is under way, with the downside being contained at 1.6855, near 38.2% retracement of 1.6730/1.6919 upleg and price action underpinned by 4-hour 20/55SMA bullish cross. While the latter levels stay intact, fresh upside attempts will remain in play, with the price’s move above 1.6919 and firm break higher, required to resume near-term uptrend from 1.6730 and open Fibonacci 76.4% at 1.6932, ahead of lower top at 1.6973 and psychological 1.7000 barrier in focus. Alternatively, slide below 1.6850 support zone, would delay bulls.
Res: 1.6902; 1.6919; 1.6932; 1.6973
Sup: 1.6874; 1.6855; 1.6825; 1.6800
USDJPY
The pair maintains overall negative tone, as weakness off 102.35, recovery rejection level, broke below strong supports and short-term base at 101.40/20 zone as well as psychological 101 support. Subsequent bounce to the levels that mark 61.8% retracement of 102.32/100.81 downleg, signal further hesitation at this important support zone. However, the structure is negative overall and will keep risk towards the downside, as long as the price holds below 102 barrier, with clear break below 101.20 base, required to confirm. Near-term target lies at 100.74, 04 Feb low, loss of which to signal bearish resumption of larger downtrend from 105.43, 02 Jan year-to-date high and focus psychological 100 support. Extension of the current correction above 102 handle, to delay bears for further sideways trading, while only break above the larger range top at 103, would provide relief and open way for stronger recovery.
Res: 101.75; 102.00; 102.11; 102.35
Sup: 101.60; 101.34; 101.10; 100.81
AUDUSD
The pair maintains negative near-term tone, with fresh weakness aiming towards 0.9200 support, as the price fell ticks away from this support. Overall picture is negative and looks for further weakness and full retracement of 0.9201/ 0.9407 ascend. Support at 0.92 zone is seen as a breakpoint and in case of extension lower, would signal an end of larger consolidation under fresh peak at 0.9265, 10 Apr high and would trigger stronger correction of larger 0.8658/ 0.9460 uptrend. Next supports lie at 0.9172, 200SMA, ahead of 0.9154 Fibonacci 38.2% retracement and 55/200SMA golden cross, with break here required to confirm bears fully in play. Current correction on overextended conditions of lower timeframes studies, delays immediate bears for corrective action, with 0.93 barrier, previous support and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9407/0.9215 descend, offering the first strong resistance, ahead of 0.9330, Fibonacci 61.8% and previous range floor, where rallies should be limited.
Res: 0.9272; 0.9288; 0.9300; 0.9330
Sup: 0.9255; 0.9207; 0.9200; 0.9172
The Euro eventually broke below breakpoint at 1.3670, ending near-term consolidative phase and commencing fresh leg lower. The price spiked lower to 1.3633 so far, ticks away from 200SMA, with subsequent bounce being capped below 1.37 barrier, former consolidation floor. This is seen as initial signal of an end of two-month congestion and fresh bear-phase that also confirms double-top formation which could trigger more significant downside, as the price action establishes below 1.37 handle. Break below 1.3626, 200SMA, to confirm bearish resumption towards psychological 1.36 support, also Fibonacci 76.4% of larger rally from 1.3475 to 1.3992, lowest and the highest price seen in 2014 so far, with 1.3561, Feb lower top, seen in extension. Correction top at 1.3687, offers initial resistance, reinforced by hourly 55SMA, and should, along with 1.37 hurdle, ideally cap the upside attempts. Only break above previous range tops at 1.3730 zone would sideline immediate bears for fresh rally towards strong 1.3773 barrier, 12/13 / 05 lower tops / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3992/1.3633 descend
Res: 1.3725; 1.3735; 1.3779; 1.3800
Sup: 1.3647; 1.3633; 1.3600; 1.3561
GBPUSD
Cable maintains overall positive tone, as rally from 1.6730, correction low, probed above 1.69 barrier, with 1.6919, the highest seen so far. Near-term congestion fresh high is under way, with the downside being contained at 1.6855, near 38.2% retracement of 1.6730/1.6919 upleg and price action underpinned by 4-hour 20/55SMA bullish cross. While the latter levels stay intact, fresh upside attempts will remain in play, with the price’s move above 1.6919 and firm break higher, required to resume near-term uptrend from 1.6730 and open Fibonacci 76.4% at 1.6932, ahead of lower top at 1.6973 and psychological 1.7000 barrier in focus. Alternatively, slide below 1.6850 support zone, would delay bulls.
Res: 1.6902; 1.6919; 1.6932; 1.6973
Sup: 1.6874; 1.6855; 1.6825; 1.6800
USDJPY
The pair maintains overall negative tone, as weakness off 102.35, recovery rejection level, broke below strong supports and short-term base at 101.40/20 zone as well as psychological 101 support. Subsequent bounce to the levels that mark 61.8% retracement of 102.32/100.81 downleg, signal further hesitation at this important support zone. However, the structure is negative overall and will keep risk towards the downside, as long as the price holds below 102 barrier, with clear break below 101.20 base, required to confirm. Near-term target lies at 100.74, 04 Feb low, loss of which to signal bearish resumption of larger downtrend from 105.43, 02 Jan year-to-date high and focus psychological 100 support. Extension of the current correction above 102 handle, to delay bears for further sideways trading, while only break above the larger range top at 103, would provide relief and open way for stronger recovery.
Res: 101.75; 102.00; 102.11; 102.35
Sup: 101.60; 101.34; 101.10; 100.81
AUDUSD
The pair maintains negative near-term tone, with fresh weakness aiming towards 0.9200 support, as the price fell ticks away from this support. Overall picture is negative and looks for further weakness and full retracement of 0.9201/ 0.9407 ascend. Support at 0.92 zone is seen as a breakpoint and in case of extension lower, would signal an end of larger consolidation under fresh peak at 0.9265, 10 Apr high and would trigger stronger correction of larger 0.8658/ 0.9460 uptrend. Next supports lie at 0.9172, 200SMA, ahead of 0.9154 Fibonacci 38.2% retracement and 55/200SMA golden cross, with break here required to confirm bears fully in play. Current correction on overextended conditions of lower timeframes studies, delays immediate bears for corrective action, with 0.93 barrier, previous support and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9407/0.9215 descend, offering the first strong resistance, ahead of 0.9330, Fibonacci 61.8% and previous range floor, where rallies should be limited.
Res: 0.9272; 0.9288; 0.9300; 0.9330
Sup: 0.9255; 0.9207; 0.9200; 0.9172
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