Why do half of all Americans believe in ghosts, three quarters believe in angels, a third believe in astrology, three quarters believe in Hell? Why do a quarter of all Americans believe that the President of the United States was born outside the country and is therefore ineligible to be President? Why do more than 40 percent of Americans think the universe began after the domestication of the dog? Let's not give the defeatist answer and blame it all on stupidity. That's probably part of the story, but let's be optimistic and concentrate on something remediable: lack of training in how to think critically, and how to discount personal opinion, prejudice and anecdote, in favour of evidence. I believe that the double-blind control experiment does double duty. It is more than just an excellent research tool. It also has educational, didactic value in teaching people how to think critically. My thesis is that you needn't actually do double-blind control experiments in order to experience an improvement in your cognitive toolkit. You only need to understand the principle, grasp why it is necessary, and revel in its elegance. If all schools taught their pupils how to do a double-blind control experiment, our cognitive toolkits would be improved in the following ways: 1. We would learn not to generalize from anecdotes. 2. We would learn how to assess the likelihood that an apparently important effect might have happened by chance alone. 3. We would learn how extremely difficult it is to eliminate subjective bias, and that subjective bias does not imply dishonesty or venality of any kind. This lesson goes deeper. It has the salutary effect of undermining respect for authority, and respect for personal opinion. 4. We would learn not to be seduced by homeopaths and other quacks and charlatans, who would consequently be put out of business. 5. We would learn critical and skeptical habits of thought more generally, which not only would improve our cognitive toolkit but might save the world. |
| Les marchés asiatiques se sont montrés hésitants, les investisseurs s'inquiétant de la réaction de la Chine face aux manifestations qui agitent Hong Kong. Sur les marchés des changes, le dollar est en voie d'enregistrer son plus gros gain mensuel en plus d'un an. Après le revers brutal subi la semaine dernière et lundi matin, les devises à haut rendement ont repris quelques couleurs. L'AUDUSD a... |
|
| De nouveau au centre de l'attention en ce début de semaine, le kiwi a dévissé de-1.5% face au dollar ce jour pour s'approcher des $0.7752, à son plus bas de l'année. L'intervention de la banque centrale néo-zélandaise et les propos du Premier ministre l'ont clairement fortement impacté. La RBNZ a vendu 521 millions NZD en août 2014, le montant le plus élevé depuis 2007. Dans le même temps, le... |
|
[/IMG]
| Le dollar maintient ses gains, coup de tabac sur les marchés actions De nouveau au centre de l'attention, le dollar est actuellement la devise la plus demandée sur les marchés mondiaux et s'est apprécié face à toutes ses grandes contreparties pendant la séance asiatique. L'indice USD affiche un gain de 0.10% à 85.28, son plus haut niveau en quatre ans. Les investisseurs prennent pleinement... |
|
